#4 - Economy

I found the Structure of Employment by Industry graph, courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Statistics below very interesting. It conveys what percentage of Australia's overall employment is taken up by each industry, with health, retail trade and construction taking the top three percentiles. It also shows predictions for these industries in the year 2040. Manufacturing and agriculture are the biggest losers in the future. These drops could be a result of a number of factors, both positive and negative, however one likely cause of manufacturing decrease could be a result of out-sourcing (something we are seeing more and more of today, as it is cheaper). Agricultural decreases could be due to urban sprawl, destruction of arable land or even the importation of food sources crippling the nation's own food industry. Whatever the cause for these future predictions, and the scenarios they suggest for our society in years to come, this graph gives a unique insight into these issues and allows us now, to generate as many possible future solutions as we can.

http://www.immi.gov.au/media/fact-sheets/15population.htm

#3 - Urban Sprawl

Taken from the Queensland Government's Greenspace Strategy http://www.dsdip.qld.gov.au/resources/plan/greenspace-strategy-2011.pdf, the following images and graph paint a very poignant picture about the current state of our greenspaces and their relationship to the built environment. As shocking as a I found the first of these images to be, when coupled with the following graph and images, it becomes apparent as to why there is so little greenspace left in South East Queensland. These four images are reason enough to implement strategies now in order to preserve what South East Queensland is best known for.

SEQ Existing Community Greenspace Network

Natural VS Built Environments

SEQ Accessibility Factor

SEQ Attractiveness Factor

#2 - Climate

Taken from the CSIRO State of the Climate (2012) Report http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/documents/resources/TR_Web_Ch4.pdf, the following points of interest have been extracted from 4 scenarios that outline our possible future situation based on human activities such as: energy generation, transport, agriculture, land-clearing, industrial processes and waste production. Although each separate scenario as defined by the CSIRO resulted in different outcomes, I have extracted the best parts from all of them to make my own, hopefully sustainable, future scenario.

• There will be a rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies.
• There will be capacity building and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income.
• There will be an underlying theme of self-reliance and preservation of local indentity.
• There will be reductions in material intensity and introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies.
• There will be an emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, including improved equity.
• There will be local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability as well. This will be needed in order for it to eventually work nationally and globally.

The following graph depicting the future as outlined by these 4 scenarios, clearly inforces the need for the above points and the future they represent to be implemented now.

Global Average Warming (based on 4 scenarios)

The State of the Climate (2012) Report, drew the following conclusions regarding regional patterns of climate change for the late 21st Century:

• Greatest warming will occur over land and at high northern latitudes, and less warming will occur over the southern oceans and North Atlantic.
• Sea level pressure is projected to increase over the sub-tropics and mid-latitudes, and decrease over high latitudes due to a poleward expansion and weaking of the Hadley Circulation and a poleward shift of the storm tracks.
• Precipitation will generally increase in the wet tropics and over the tropical Pacific, with general decreases expected in the sub-tropics.
• Globally averaged mean water vapour, evaporation and precipitation are projected to increase.
• It is very likely that the duration, intensity and frequency of heatwaves will increase and cold periods and frosts will decrease.
• Instensity of precipitation events is projected to increase.
• Longer periods of rainfall in sub-tropical and mid-latitude regions.
• More frequent, intense tropical cyclones and associated extreme wind and rain are projected.
• A tendency for the drying of the mid-continental areas during summer, increasing risk of severe drought.
• Snow cover and sea ice extent are expected to decrease, glaciers and ice-caps are expected to lose mass and this will contribute to further sea level rise.

#1 - Population

Courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Statisticshttp://www.abs.gov.au/, the following points and graphs (from data attained in 2008) aim to outline the key issues regarding population in Australia and to also convey my thoughts on the issue by their being highlighted and accompanying annotations and thoughts:

• Influencing for better or worse, the structure and size of the population shape a nation's economy, society and environment.
• 'Australia's population in 2006 was 20.7 million people and is projected to increase to 35.5 million in 2056 and 44.7 million in 2101'.
• Australia's ageing population will result in tan overall median age increase from 36.6yrs in 2006 to 41.9yrs in 2056.
• There will be a greater proportion of people aged 65yrs and over in 2056. - there will be a huge focus on Aged Care in the future
• People aged 15-64yrs 'working age' will decrease from 67% in 2006 to 58% in 2056. - who will make up our workforce in the future then? Migrants? Robots? No-one?
• Population projections are based on current trends in fertility, life expectancy at birth, net overseas migration (NOM) and net interstate migration. - change any one of those dramatically and you would have an entirely different story.
• Natural increase in population (ie births, deaths etc) contributed to 139,500 people in 2007-07, while NOM contributed 177,600 people. - If going to increase even more, where do they live? How do we feed them? What kind of strain is this going to put on our energy and water supply?

Series B goes off current trends and above stats are based on this series.

8 Key Areas for Investigation

As a result of last weeks tutorial activity and ensuing brainstorming sessions, I have identified 8 key areas of research and investigation. I believe these will aid greatly in defining possible future scenarios that are not only interesting, but are both logical and believable. The key areas are as follows and will be discussed in further posts:

1. Population
2. Climate
3. Urban Sprawl
4. Economy
5. Migration
6. Technology
7. On-line Shopping
8. Social Media

All of these categories were researched with regard to current and predicted global, national and regional forecasts.

Reading Response: The Continual Partial Everywhere

With the creation of an 'aspatial experience' or a 'city in a city' this article looks at the effect social media is having on both the physical and virtual worlds. Ideas ranging from simultaneity to polluting electro-magnetic radiation, the only thing that I could really relate to was the need as outlined by artist Sarah von Sonsbeeck for 'aspatiality avoidance' or a 'right to silence' as proposed by her impenetrable tent. It has been a growing concern of mine that I might be getting left behind with regard to technology (especially smartphone technology) as friends, lecturers and even strangers all assume that everyone has a smartphone. For example, important information and required instant knowledge can (in some cases, and recently in another subject's lecture) only be accessed by QR codes...so I miss out? Its almost become a necessity to have a smartphone in order to be considered part of modern society, as in most cases people have done away with 'old' means of communication like calling, emailing, texting, or even face-to-face conversation in preference of social media.

I can appreciate however, the positives associated with these 'viral networks of social-services-in-space' and believe that they could be used to better understand other cultures and diversify our own social strictures. From a retail and marketing perspective, this 'city in a city' idea offers a whole new realm of possibilities. As long as the physical and virtual 'cities' can co-exist and intertwine cohesively, and ensuring that physical interaction and socialising is not completely replaced with the virtual, then I have no issue with people who choose to partake in this 'aspatial experience.'

Reading Response: How Buildings Learn

I found this reading both enlightening and highly beneficial to my approach to Design. The breaking down of built form and its relationship to Time, into the categories listed below, allows for a simple yet cohesive process to generating resilient architecture:

• Shell (structure - lasts the lifetime of building) - Architect, Engineer, Designer
• Services (cabling etc - replaceable) - Professional, Tradesman
• Scenery (layout and features - 5 years) - re-designable
• Set (furniture etc - months or weeks) - Occupant

I also found the time-lapse of images of the building on the cliff in San Francisco to convey so eloquently the underlying ideology of built form as proposed by Frank Duffy. The following extract from the text encapsulates this 'light-bulb' / enlightening moment I had with regard to a way to go about design with the underlying theme of resilience and longevity. A starting point or criteria if you will.

" Thinking about buildings in this time-laden way is very practical. As a designer you avoid such classic mistakes as solving a five-minute problem with a fifty-year solution, or vice-versa. It legitimises the existence of different design skills - architects, service engineers, space planners, interior designers - all with their different agendas defined by this time-scale. It means you invent building forms which are very adaptive."

A scale relationship was also outlined that aids in defining who we design for in each particular component of the overall built form ie.

• Stuff -> Individual
• Space -> Tenants
• Services -> Landlord
• Skin -> Public
• Structure and Site -> Community

With regard to my own theme group and research pertaining to Suburban based issues, the following quote supports an idea that Urban Sprawl (identified now as a 'bad thing') might not be such a negative occurrence if we, as designers, can accommodate and design for it right now. Issues around food shortage, decreases in greenspace and agricultural land, and connectivity would be just a few of the areas designers would need to apply their expertise in order to change the way we see Urban Sprawl. I'll let you make up your own mind about what this extract means for you.

"Small lots will support resilience because they allow many people to attend directly to their needs by designing, building, and maintaining their own environments. By ensuring that property remains in many hands, small lots bring important results: many people make many different decisions, thereby ensuring variety in the resulting environment."



An Interesting Observation

Have you ever noticed the different colourations of lights in apartment buildings at night?

It is something we as designers have no control over, as we can only design the fixtures and fittings but ultimately it is in the hands of the inhabitant to choose the light bulb. And I have observed that this choice gives an identity and uniqueness to each building.

So much can be gleaned by this one observation about the inhabitants of each apartment block. Some units are glowing in cool, flourenscent blues, whilst others look cosy and inviting in warm yellows and oranges.

If you were an expert on lighting and up to date with what is available on the market, one could even deduce the more energy efficient households and the environmentally conscience inhabitants. From this observation, one could even determine an economic strata across the building or even compare mulitple.

Even the lack of lights or presence of christmas and party lights speaks volumes about the occupants, and therefore the character of the building.

So when you're out and about at night, take a moment to observe the buildings around you and ask yourself:

"What do my lights say about me?"

http://www.flickr.com/photos/studiobaker/5075365918/

Tutorial: Sustainable Future

The frameworks outlined in the How to Measure Sustainability lecture, where the identification of a fundamental principle, sub-principles and pattern/s aid in the generation of holistic design outcomes, was utilised by our group to start a discussion on the sustainability issues for the key future scenario formed last week.  Having chosen the Suburban theme, and therefore Paddington Central and the future of retail becoming our focus, we decided to look into the physical demands of the virtual world on the real world, and how we could more efficiently and effectively design for this. The following diagrams and figures aim to show our process over the duration of the tutorial.

Above brainstorming identified key principles

A Pattern was formed

Modern application of Pattern

Future application of New Pattern

Possible Design Outcome 1

Possible Design Outcome 2

As you can hopefully see from the above diagramming, the pattern of the modern shopping centre changed when we increased number and in-turn proximity of centres or Hubs as we now would like to call them, which resulted in the change of use of the parking areas and centre itself. What exactly these spaces will now look like in the year 2040 we haven't discussed yet, but two outcomes outlined above are two possible directions in which this project could continue.

The overall aim derived from this process, for our project, outlined the need for a paradigm shift in the way people think about and see Urban Sprawl. If we can implement 'something' now to enhance this issue, then there is no reason that Urban Sprawl can't be a very positive thing-resulting in Local Living, Cultural Hubs and the formation of rich Community Identities.

Reading Response: Urban Form and Locality

Since this article was written there has been a significant focus on sustainability when it comes to planning strategies of the built environment. Alot of the ideas put forth and discussed aren't new ot me, as DAB610 and previous Regional and Town Planning experience has made me quite aware of these ideas and discourse.

The paper evaluates current and future urban form with regard to:

• Dispersal and Concentration (towns vs cities)
• Segregation and Mixed-Use (placement and distribution of industry and commerce)
• Settlement Density (low vs high)
• Shape (depending on transport emphasis and types)

When weighing up the benefits of the dispersal of built form, it was highlighted that more and more people want to live in areas designated as 'sprawl'. Although this article is in reference to a Europian setting, I think this point is relevant to current residential trends in South East Queensland (SEQ). It is my belief however, that this is un-sustainable in its current form in SEQ, as we will eventually reach a point when our land, resources and natural environment can't take anymore strain.

I found the point that small, childless households are becoming more prominant (in Europe) quite interesting, and it got me thinking about the possible ramifications for the built environment. Alot like the movie "Children of Men" starring Clive Owen and Jodie Foster where the human race has become infertile and face eventual and certain extinction, however I believe it would offer more opportunity to evaluate this film from a design perspective.

I would have to say that the one part of this paper that really resonated with me would have to be the following quote. I just feel that it is an all-encompassing justification for action and for 'greenification' strategies to be put in place NOW, not in 5, 10, 15 years, but NOW!!

"Why should we green the cities? Because man needs beauty: he needs nature, trees, greenery, birds, squirrels, the changing of the seasons, the links to the soil. Because we need space for leisure, to recreate mind and soul, to run, play, fish, cycle, relax and socialise. Becuase the green can be productive of food, of timber, of energy, of pure water, of benign microclimates."