Filtering of Future Scenario Ideas

As I mentioned in the previous post, a process of filtering through the copious and varied scenarios put forth was necessary to attain the most logical and believable ones to include in our presentation. As our Paddington site exists; in a suburban context - in a regional context - in a state context - in a national context - and also in a world context - it was necessary therefore to have a heirarchy of possible scenarios for each of these contexts. I'm not saying that the scenarios and images listed below all exist simultaneously (although some could), I'm merely suggesting that all of these scenarios are possible and are tailored to each degree of Context.

World

Service Robots

Extreme Weather

Sea Level Rise

 National

Future Transport

Over Population

Renewable Energy Sources

 State

Food Factories

Effect of Industry on Water-ways

Unemployment

 Regional

Physical demands of the Virtual

Higher Density Living

Urban Sprawl

 Image References

Service Robots

#1 - http://www.fujitsu.com/global/news/pr/archives/month/2005/20050913-01.html

#2 - http://www.chilloutpoint.com/featured/human-and-robots-visions-of-the-future.html

#3 - http://www.hobby.net.au/flex/future-robots/1194/1

Sea Level Rise

#1 - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthpicturegalleries/8044199/Postcards-from-the-future-illustrators-imagine-how-London-could-be-affected-by-climate-change.html

#2 - http://www.zmescience.com/ecology/environmental-issues/sea-level-rise-of-up-to-1-6-meters-projected-for-2100/

#3 - http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=183565

Extreme Weather Events

#1 - http://www.startribune.com/printarticle/?id=163546386

#2 - http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-09/01/content_6073082.htm

#3 - http://balaji-m-p.blogspot.com.au/2011/05/earthquake.html

Future Transport

#1 - http://www.trendhunter.com/trends/future-transportation#!/photos/102361/1

#2 - http://inhabitat.com/transportation/page/70/

#3 - http://rohantime.com/14583/how-can-we-improve-transport-in-britain/

Over-Population

#1 - http://www.triplepundit.com/2010/07/overpopulation-fred-pearce/

#2 - http://caridalys.wordpress.com/category/overpopulation/

#3 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overpopulation

Renewable Energy Sources

#1 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy

#2 - http://www.worldculturepictorial.com/blog/content/pelamis-portugal-world-first-most-ambitious-working-wave-farm-now-generating-electricity-1500-homes

#3 - http://renewables-energy.net/2011/06/29/sources-of-renewable-energy/

Food Factories

#1 - http://panacea-bocaf.org/verticalfarming.htm

#2 - http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/08/photogalleries/future-fish-farms-pictures/index.html

#3 - http://kritismonde.blogspot.com.au/2011/04/vertical-farming-could-it-be-future-of.html

Future of our Water-ways

#1 - http://inhabitat.com/new-study-suggests-pacific-ocean-is-polluted-with-coffee/

#2 & #3 - http://se2pollutants.blogspot.com.au/2010/03/post-1-two-classifications-of-water.html

Unemployment

#1 - http://www.thehealthculture.com/2010/10/the-dismal-future-of-unemployment/

#2 - http://www.google.com.au/imgres?q=future+unemployment+due+to+robots

#3 - http://politicalfun.blogspot.com.au/2009/02/unemployment-cartoon.html

Urban Sprawl

#1 - http://designbuildsource.com.au/australia-fights-urban-sprawl

#2 - http://agmetalminer.com/2011/01/14/the-growth-of-cities-how-urban-sprawl-in-china-and-india-moves-markets/

#3 - http://www.scienceimage.csiro.au/index.cfm?event=site.image.detail&id=1541

Physical of the Virtual

#1 - http://www.archi-europe.com/news-1127-arup-unveils-the-worlds-most-sustainable-broadcast.html

#2 - http://www.epicycle.org.uk/weblog/2005/jun-2005.htm

#3 - http://www.omnispace.org/virtual_reality/

Higher Density Living

#1 - http://www.svingel.info/high-density-living-at-carlsberg/

#2 - http://urbantoronto.ca/forum/showthread.php/10480-Families-in-Toronto

#3 - http://www.aiany.org/eOCULUS/newsletter/?p=904

Discarded Future Scenario Ideas

Having filtered down to a select few scenarios in each of the categories of; world, national, state and regional, the following dot-points aim to show the extent of which I started my brainstorming and research into 'future scenarios' when we didn't have a site or set parameters.

1. sea level rise
2. desertification
3. embodied effect of the manufacturing and running of computer chips
4. renewable energy sources
5. slowing ageing process
6. human cloning
7. new race of genetically superior people
8. transgenic species (animals, animal + human)
9. extreme and varied weather events
10. plant factories, animal factories, and water factories
11. no longer inhabitable land (due to pollution, weather, desertification, nuclear war)
12. futre transport
13. dirty bombs
14. Idiocracy-style society
15. extinction of life on earth (plant and animal)
16. robots (good or bad)
17. totalitarian government
18. aliens (good or bad, in control or under control)
19. teleportation devices (personal) and affect on built environment

Links to above topics are as follows:

1 & 2 - http://www.globalchange.com/futureenvironment.htm
4 - http://www.globalchange.com/future-of-energy-wind.-solar-gas-oil-energy-industry-trends-in-europe.-keynote-speaker.htm
5 - http://www.globalchange.com/what-if-we-stop-ageing-impact-on-society-future-pharmaceutical-industry-health-care-keynote.htm
6, 7 & 8 - http://www.globalchange.com/clonech.htm
9 - http://theconversation.edu.au/2050-our-future-state-of-the-environment-report-2972
10 - http://foodforfuture.wordpress.com/2011/02/28/is-this-the-future-of-food-japanese-plant-factory-churn-out-immaculate-vegetables/
11 - http://www.gamefreaks.co.nz/2011/08/19/anno-2070-gc-trailer-uncovers-brave-new-world/
12 - http://www.environment911.org/55.Hydrogenase_Airship_of_the_Future

Project Aim

The following paragraphs outline our group's underlying ideology and aim with regard to our future scenario and subsequent architectural interventions:

It has come to our attention over the past two weeks that there is a desperate need to change the perception of the urban sprawl prevalent in South East Queensland. There seems to be a negative mentality out there regarding the quality of what we design and plan.

The built environment and subsequent expansion of this through suburbia and into regional areas had continually come under unnecessary criticism, resulting in the current belief that whatever we build, design and plan if os sub-par, poor quality.

Instead of attempting to re-design and build new solutions to these problems, it would be far easier to first shift people's perception in a more positive manner. It is this paradigm shift in the way we see and approach Urban Sprawl as it is currently labelled, that can result in the steps being taken, and strategies and design interventions implemented to actually produce sustainable urban growth and expansion that is not only welcomed by society as a whole but also encouarges civic interaction.

Urban-http://www.mattsimner.com/2009/04/27/urban-oasis-t-shirt/

Renaming "Urban Sprawl"

Dictionary Meanings according to the Macquarie International English Dictionary (2004):

Urban - 'relating to or belonging to a City'

Urbane - 'showing sophistication, refinement, or courtesy' --> wouldn't it be nice if our cities and towns were sophisticated, refined and courteous? Perhaps thats what we should aim to achieve as Designers?

Urbanite - 'somebody who lives in a City or Town'

Urban Sprawl - 'the expansion of an urban area into areas of countryside that surround it' --> not neccessarily having negative connotations in its meaning, therefore we have applied negativity through malpractice?

Sprawl - 1. 'extend in disordered way. To extend over or across something in a disordered, awkward, or ugly way'
              2. ' unchecked growth of urban area. The scattered, un-planned, and unchecked expansion of a town or city into surrounding coutryside'
--> so it is the addition of 'sprawl' to 'urban' that provides the negative connotations, therefore we need to replace this word.

Sprawl Synnonyms - ramble, spread, straggle, trail, cover, plaster, expand, extend

Urban Synnonyms - civic, city, inner-city, metropolitan, municipal, town, built-up

Now to combine the two:

• Urban Growth -->boring
• Urban Expansion --> not bad
• Urban Seep -->sounds grose
• Urban Permeation --> too long
• Urban Spread --? edible?
• Civic Cover -->insurance?
• Civic Expansion -->quite like

Tutorial: People and Lifestyles

After presenting our ideas regarding Urban Sprawl and ways to combat and improve this issue, it became evident that if we are to make Urban Sprawl a positive thing through the implementation of cultural and community-based Nodes, then we first need to change the way people perceive, feel and talk about Urban Sprawl. The first and main issue was the term itself. In today's society the prevalent Urban Sprawl is a negative thing because there is insufficient infrastructure, connectivity and cultural and community identity. If however we were to change this through wholistic design interventions (project 2?) and would  use the current Urban Sprawl framework to provide a positive outcome, then the term itself would have positive connotations and could remain in use. However, a bad reputation is always a difficult thing to shake off so therefore a whole new term would be needed to satisfy the public that it really is a new, shiny positive urban situation. The following posts will take you through the process of this renaming, and the outcome will hopefully catch on through repetitive use and the 'goods to back it up' in time.

Urban-http://www.mattsimner.com/2009/04/27/urban-oasis-t-shirt/

Lecture: People and Lifestyles

Although this lecture was perhaps more relevant to Project 2, it was extremely helpful in providing a starting point from which to approach the Architectural Possibilities inherent to our site and future context. A number of questions listed below were put forth, and ideas regarding storyboarding and other representation techniques were conveyed. I would really love to do something other than the standard comic-style storyboards and perhaps make all four panels speak one cohesive story. We will have to work on this in our group however and I look forward to coming up with something I haven't attempted before. Following are questions about designing a space for 2 or more people in our future scenario...

• what will affect these people's lifestyles?
• are these people friends? colleagues? strangers? family?
• what to they want to do? their desires? their goals?
• what do they need? and how can they be provided for?
• are they there to eat? sleep? drink? enjoy? shop? rest? survive? to be separated? to be protected?
• what would 1000 people need?
• what would 10,000 people need?
• what happens to the space when scale of people increases?
• what if you don't know exactly who they are or what they need?
• how do we deal with 'indeterminacy'?
• how can we 'future proof' this space?
• what do people carry around with them?
• what if people could change parts of the space?
• how can machines contribute?
• how can we activate existing systems?

So many questions and so few answers right now. The following images portray how architects Jagnefalt Milton have tried to answer some of these questions in the past. The project is called A Rolling Masterplan.

Rolling-http://www.dezeen.com/2010/12/22/a-rolling-masterplan-by-jagnefalt-milton/

#8 - Social Media

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, social networking sites have grown in popularity with 37% of users accessing these sites in 2009, up from 26% in 2008. The average age of social networkers was 35 years, and those who didn't use social networking site had an average age of 53 years. As can be seen by the graph below, the main modes of on-line communication consist of email, social networking sites and news feeds taking the top 3 spots. Bringing up the rear include; news feeds, instant messaging, blogs, internet phone calls and wikis.

Social networking with regard to smartphone use, shows that 61% of total smartphone use is for social networking by males, and 65% by females. The two graphs below are of great interest when comparing with each other. They show the marked difference in how and what males and females use their smartphones for.

 http://blog.marginmedia.com.au/Our-Blog/bid/81865/Smartphone-Use-in-Australia-The-Advantage-for-Marketers

#7 - On-Line Shopping

Internet User Increase since 1990

I think the above graph from the Australian Bureau of Statistics speaks volumes about the use of the internet over time, but also the accessibility and affordibility over time as well. It can be said that information technology is becoming an increasingly important part of the way we work, communicate, learn, be entertained and how we conduct ourselves financially. The following points aim to convey an overall snap-shot of the demographics that use the interent and where they access it from:

• 31% of people 65 years and over.
• 74% of people 15 years and over.
• 68% access from home.
• 35% access from the workplace (made up of 25-44yr olds).
• 84% of people aged 15-17yrs accessed from an educational institution.

I found the rates of household internet access across each state very interesting as well, as it shows the increase in interent access by state since 1998 to present.

In 2009, the domestic online retail sales for all sectors of the economy were estimated to have totalled between $19 and $24 billion. The most popular online purchases as of 2009 (as seen in the graph below) were travel goods, followed closely by entertainment events, concerts and movie tickets. The main reasons for making online purchases were; convenience, lower prices and wider availability of products. So the questions now remains, what physically shop?

I didn't find it surprising that men were more likely to make online purchases than women, as it is pretty widely known that the majority of men don't enjoy shopping as much as women. Perhaps this is an area if further investigation as to why do women shop? and why do they prefer to shop physically than virtually?



#6 - Technology

I find it quite fun visiting Futurist Blogs and websites and found one by Dave Evans 'Chief Futurist, CISCO IBSG Innovations Practice' to be of great interest and relevance to this project. He has listed his Top 25 Technology Predictions, however I have listed below only the ones of interest to me. You can find the whole list by following this link http://www.cisco.com/web/about/ac79/docs/Top_25_Predictions_121409rev.pdf.

• By the end of 2010, there will be a billion transistors per human - each costing one ten-millionth of a cent.
• By 2020, a $1000 personal computer will have the raw processing power of a human brain.
• Today, we know 5 percent of what we will know in 50 years. In other words, in 50 years, 95 percent of what we will know will have discovered in the past 50 years.
• By 2010, 35 billion devices will be connected to the interent (nearly six devices per person on the planet).
• By 2020, universal langauge transition will be commonplace in every device.
• In the next five years, any surface will become a display. -> like Minority Report?
• By 2025, teleportation at the particle level will begin to occur.
• By 2030, artificial implants for the brain will take place.

Perhaps some more realistic predictions have been outlined by IBM http://www.forbes.com/sites/thestreet/2011/12/20/ibms-tech-predictions-for-the-next-5-years/to occur over the next 5 years:

1. "People Power" - capturing kinetic energy from doing any number of activities.
2. No passwords - use of biometric data such as facial recognition, retinal scans and voice files will make passwords obselete.
3. Mind reading - headsets with sensors to read brain activity and recognise facial expressions. -> interesting possibilities for 'positive advertising' as touched on previous post about last week's tutorial activity
4. No more digital divide - the gap between the haves and have-nots will cease to exist.
5. Junk mail no longer 'junk' - spam will be so personalised, one will find it relevant to daily life. -> like our 'positive advertising' idea?

#5 - Migration

The two components that are used to determine population statistics include Natural Increase (the number of births minus deaths) and Net Overseas Migration (NOM). Coming under the Natural Increase heading are the components of fertility and life expectancy. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia's fertility rate has fluctuated greatly since 1961 to 2010 and is still below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman:

• 3.6 children per woman in 1961
• 1.9 children per woman in 1979 -> Baby Boomers?
• 1.72 children per woman in 2003 -> Baby Bonus?
• 1.98 children per woman in 2009
• 1.89 children per woman in 2010 -> end Baby Bonus? Enter GFC?

The life expectancy of the average Australian has increased significantly by approximately 10 years since 1960:

• 79.6 yrs for a Boy born in 2010
• 84.1 yrs for a Girl born in 2010

Net Overseas Migration accounts for 54% of Australia's total population growth, and the following chart depicts the reasons for this migration and the comparison of arrivals versus departures. I found it quite interesting.

Character of Migration
http://www.immi.gov.au/media/fact-sheets/15population.htm