#2 - Climate

Taken from the CSIRO State of the Climate (2012) Report http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/documents/resources/TR_Web_Ch4.pdf, the following points of interest have been extracted from 4 scenarios that outline our possible future situation based on human activities such as: energy generation, transport, agriculture, land-clearing, industrial processes and waste production. Although each separate scenario as defined by the CSIRO resulted in different outcomes, I have extracted the best parts from all of them to make my own, hopefully sustainable, future scenario.

• There will be a rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies.
• There will be capacity building and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income.
• There will be an underlying theme of self-reliance and preservation of local indentity.
• There will be reductions in material intensity and introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies.
• There will be an emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, including improved equity.
• There will be local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability as well. This will be needed in order for it to eventually work nationally and globally.

The following graph depicting the future as outlined by these 4 scenarios, clearly inforces the need for the above points and the future they represent to be implemented now.

Global Average Warming (based on 4 scenarios)

The State of the Climate (2012) Report, drew the following conclusions regarding regional patterns of climate change for the late 21st Century:

• Greatest warming will occur over land and at high northern latitudes, and less warming will occur over the southern oceans and North Atlantic.
• Sea level pressure is projected to increase over the sub-tropics and mid-latitudes, and decrease over high latitudes due to a poleward expansion and weaking of the Hadley Circulation and a poleward shift of the storm tracks.
• Precipitation will generally increase in the wet tropics and over the tropical Pacific, with general decreases expected in the sub-tropics.
• Globally averaged mean water vapour, evaporation and precipitation are projected to increase.
• It is very likely that the duration, intensity and frequency of heatwaves will increase and cold periods and frosts will decrease.
• Instensity of precipitation events is projected to increase.
• Longer periods of rainfall in sub-tropical and mid-latitude regions.
• More frequent, intense tropical cyclones and associated extreme wind and rain are projected.
• A tendency for the drying of the mid-continental areas during summer, increasing risk of severe drought.
• Snow cover and sea ice extent are expected to decrease, glaciers and ice-caps are expected to lose mass and this will contribute to further sea level rise.